Blog Entries

Guardian: Inflation hits 3.7% in April

tim.proudlock@blackswancapital.uk.com — Tue, 18 May 2010 00:00:00 +0100

UK inflation rose to 3.7% in April, prompting Mervyn King to write his first letter to George Osborne today. by Graeme Wearden

The governor of the Bank of England had to explain to Britain's new chancellor why the cost of living, as measured by the consumer prices index (CPI), is more than a percentage point above the official target of 2%.

The Office for National Statistics also reported that the retail prices index, a wider measure of inflation which includes mortgage payments, [...]

Evening Standard: Interest rate rise feared as inflation hits 3.4%

tim.proudlock@blackswancapital.uk.com — Tue, 20 Apr 2010 00:00:00 +0100

A shock rise in the cost of living stoked fears today that interest rates will rise sooner than expected. by Hugo Duncan

Soaring petrol prices pushed inflation up from 3 per cent in February to 3.4 per cent last month — well above the 3.1 per cent forecast in the City.

The surge in the Consumer Prices Index presents a pre-election headache for the Government and the Bank of England who hoped it would fall back to its two per cent target this year.

City experts warned that [...]

Globe and Mail: Short sellers take aim at pound

tim.proudlock@blackswancapital.uk.com — Mon, 01 Mar 2010 00:00:00 +0100

The short sellers made a killing on the euro. Now they're stalking the pound. by Eric Reguly

The fiscal woes of southern European nations such as Greece and Spain have preoccupied investors and political leaders for weeks. But the spotlight is now also on Britain, amid concerns its deficit is out of control and that no clear winner will emerge from the spring election.

A wild, two-hour trading session pushed the pound down almost 4 cents against the U.S. dollar Monday morning, ta [...]

The Guardian: Hung parliament fears send pound plunging

tim.proudlock@blackswancapital.uk.com — Mon, 01 Mar 2010 00:00:00 +0100

Six weeks ago one pound was worth as much as $1.645, but the rate fell to $1.47 this morning. Graeme Wearden

The prospect of a hung parliament sent sterling falling sharply against other major currencies on the financial markets today.

The pound lost more than four cents against the dollar, hitting a fresh nine-month low of $1.4784, down from around $1.52 overnight. This is its lowest level since May 2009, putting the pound on track for its worst daily performance since February [...]

Fundstrategy: Government revises GDP to 0.3%

tim.proudlock@blackswancapital.uk.com — Fri, 26 Feb 2010 00:00:00 +0100

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has revised the 2009 fourth quarter GDP figure up to 0.3% from 0.1%. By Lee Jones

The ONS says a revision of “strong” December data meant that Britain came out of the recession better than initially thought.

James Hughes, the Black Swan Capital Wealth chief economist, says: “On the surface, this stronger than expected upward revision is positive news, but the wealth of negative factors still at play in the UK economy should cast a lo [...]

This is Money: Updated GDP figures boost economy hopes

tim.proudlock@blackswancapital.uk.com — Fri, 26 Feb 2010 00:00:00 +0100

Official figures confirmed today that the British economy did in fact leave recession at the end of last year. Andrew Oxlade

A first estimate, published in January, put the growth in gross domestic product at just 0.1% for the final three months of 2009 (Q4).

Revised figures were released today by the Office for National Statistics at 9.30am which put the figure at 0.3% - closer to the original consensus estimate made by economists.

'While the news on Q4 is welcome, we w [...]

The New York Times: UK Consumer Price Inflation Jumps to 2.9 Pct

tim.proudlock@blackswancapital.uk.com — Tue, 19 Jan 2010 00:00:00 +0100

LONDON (AP) -- Consumer prices shot up 2.9 percent in the year to December, above the government's target and the biggest ever month-to-month increase in the annual rate, official statisticians said Tuesday.

Analysts said higher prices could make Britain's economic recovery more painful, but expected the inflation rate to moderate significantly later this year.

''The patience of U.K. households is likely to be sorely tried over the next couple of years,'' Bank of England governor [...]

Evening Standard: UK isolation increases as Italy escapes recession

tim.proudlock@blackswancapital.uk.com — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 00:00:00 +0100

The contrast between Britain's lagging economy and the rest of Europe was highlighted as Italy officially pulled out of recession today. By Simon English

In contrast, the Bank of England held interest rates at an all-time low of 0.5% as it tries to revive the sluggish UK economy.

Italy's third-quarter gross domestic product grew 0.6%, after five quarters of contraction. That growth is a bit higher than the eurozone average of 0.4%.

The Bank's Monetary Policy Committee has ha [...]

Daily Express: BANK OF ENGLAND HOLDS INTEREST RATES AT HISTORIC LOW OF 0.5%

tim.proudlock@blackswancapital.uk.com — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 00:00:00 +0100

RATE-SETTERS at the Bank of England kept interest rates at their historic low of 0.5 per cent today, after its monetary policy was left unchanged. By Emily Garnham

The Bank of England's decision to leave interest rates untouched as Britain rides out the recession that has crippled families and businesses alike was widely predicted by economists.

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) also chose not to alter its quantitative easing (QE) scheme to boost the country's money supply, lea [...]

Express: Inflation lurks while you wait for a win

tim.proudlock@blackswancapital.uk.com — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 00:00:00 +0100

PREMIUM Bonds offer a safe home for your money and the slim chance of winning a million, but they have limitations, says Paul Hutton, director at wealth managers Black Swan Capital.

"Your returns are typically small and aren't guaranteed, so you can't rely on them as a regular source of income.

"You may have to wait months or years before any returns, during which time the value of your money is being eroded by inflation."

Anybody who needs a regular income could consider [...]

The Guardian: Quantitative easing £25bn boost

tim.proudlock@blackswancapital.uk.com — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 00:00:00 +0100

What do economists make of the MPC's decision to expand its QE programme and leave interest rates at a record low of 0.5%?

The Bank of England's monetary policy committee decided today to pump another £25bn into the economy, taking its quantitative easing (QE) programme to £200bn. It also left interest rates unchanged at 0.5%, their lowest on record. Here is what City economists and other commentators think about the decisions.

Colin Ellis, European economist [...]

BBC News: Pound hit by falling UK inflation

tim.proudlock@blackswancapital.uk.com — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 00:00:00 +0100

A key measure of inflation has fallen to its lowest level since September 2004, official statistics show, further weakening the value of sterling.

The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) dropped to an annual rate of 1.1% in September from 1.6% in August.

Meanwhile, the Retail Prices Index (RPI) inflation measure, which includes mortgage interest payments and housing costs, fell to -1.4% from -1.3%.

The pound fell 0.5% against the euro to a six-month low of 1.0628 euros.

It [...]

MSN Money: Britain's way out of recession remains clouded

tim.proudlock@blackswancapital.uk.com — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 00:00:00 +0100

LONDON (AP) - Britain's progress out of recession remained clouded on Tuesday with improvements in retail sales and house prices overshadowed by warnings that business confidence remains frail and a drop in inflation to a five-year low.

A survey of more than 5,500 firms across the country by the British Chambers of Commerce showed that several confidence indicators remained negative, casting doubt on expectations that Britain emerged from recession in the July to September quarter.

< [...]

Express Reveled: More than half of women aren't paying into pensions

tim.proudlock@blackswancapital.uk.com — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 00:00:00 +0100

LESS THAN half of British women are saving towards retirement, as they fork out to clear their debts and children instead. By Emily Garnham

Only 47 per cent of females are hoarding cash for when they give up work, compared to 59 per cent of men.

Insurer Scottish Widow says a quarter of women who could afford to pay into a pension and who need to are failing to contribute compared to 15 per cent of men in a similar position.

Women who are saving are also paying less into thei [...]

Will banking's share bounce last?

tim.proudlock@blackswancapital.uk.com — Sun, 13 Sep 2009 00:00:00 +0100

Britain's banks may have come back from the brink but should investors still watch their step? Julian Knight investigates

It's almost a year since the string of events that brought the financial system to the brink of the abyss started with the collapse of Lehman Brothers. For a time it looked as if the life savings of millions of Britons could be about to disappear down the Swanee.

The scars from this period are probably still felt keenly by many private investors and savers tod [...]

The best bets for the end of the downturn

tim.proudlock@blackswancapital.uk.com — Mon, 24 Aug 2009 00:00:00 +0100

Though opinion remains divided over when the recovery will take hold, we consider where you should put your cash... By David Budworth

So is the party over? After four months of storming stock market gains, investors received a scare this week as world stocks tumbled amid fears about the strength of the economic recovery.

On Monday equities in Europe and Asia endured some of their biggest one-day falls since the market turnaround in March. The FTSE 100 index fell 1.5 per cent a [...]

Maximise Your Pension Cash

tim.proudlock@blackswancapital.uk.com — Wed, 29 Jul 2009 00:00:00 +0100

BUYING an annuity at retirement is one of the most important financial decisions you will ever make, and one of the hardest. By Harvey Jones

An annuity is an income for life that you buy with the proceeds of your personal or occupational pension. Unlike most financial products, once you have bought an annuity, you can’t switch it or sell it: you are stuck with it. So you have to make the right decision.

One of the most complex questions is whether to go for a level incom [...]

Aiming for big gains with smaller companies

tim.proudlock@blackswancapital.uk.com — Sat, 27 Jun 2009 00:00:00 +0100

The Alternative Investment Market (AIM) has staged a spectacular comeback this year, bouncing 42 per cent since mid-March and leaving other UK indices in its wake. By David Budworth

Admittedly, the rebound followed one of the most difficult periods for the London Stock Exchange’s market for small and growing businesses. Once described as the “most successful growth market in the world”, AIM lost 70 per cent of its value in the previous two years.

The number of companies list [...]

Mortgage Solutions - BoE rate hold was unanimous

tim.proudlock@blackswancapital.uk.com — Wed, 17 Jun 2009 00:00:00 +0100

The Bank of England's (BoE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted unanimously to keep interest rates at a record low of 0.5% and maintain its £125bn quantatitive easing programme.

Minutes of the MPC’s June meeting policymakers agreed the medium term outlook had not changed since their May forecasts but acknowledged there had been some encouraging news over the month which could gather momentum by boosting confidence.
"Overall, the risk of a continued sharp contraction in out [...]

Daily Mail - Prices get even lower, but they won't last long

tim.proudlock@blackswancapital.uk.com — Wed, 20 May 2009 00:00:00 +0100

Families were yesterday warned to enjoy lower living costs 'while they last' as official figures revealed that deflation moved into record territory last month. By Olinka Koster

Plunging mortgage and energy bills drove down prices by 1.2 per cent in April, compared with a year earlier.

The figures, from the Retail Prices Index, are the lowest since records began in 1948. However, the Government's favoured measure of inflation - the Consumer Prices Index - remains in positive ter [...]